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28.05 Russian Market can be at the brink. One more time.


Despite overall optimism in the Russian stock market my interpretation is that the index has restarted its descend to new lows. Lots of people feel relieved and over-optimistic today argueing that the market will continue going up despite geopolitics, reasoning the inability of EU to wean itself off Russian oil and gas. I tend to look at the recent advance (propelled by abrupt ruble strengthening) as a bounce. Technically the count has not been completed and there was no divergence on RSI.


Gazprom board recommending record dividend can also be a marker of the market local top.


In the Crude Oil update I make the bullish case triggered by possible embargo. I would not want to speculate any further (it is beyond the scope of my reports) however, it does support the bearish case for the chart below.


RTS index, Daily

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/RTSI/pSHq0x26-RTSI-Update/


I also updated the MOEX index (ruble equivalent of RTS) that in my view has just completed consolidating and is poised for a sharp drop.


MOEX index, Daily

Regards,

Denis

Disclaimer:


It is not the intention of this report to give out buy or sell signals or any trading advice. This material represents my view on the markets and shall not be regarded as an invitation to open trading positions. The report and any materials on this site avoid discussion on politics and exist solely to provide an interpretation of what is happening in the financial markets.

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