22/05 Crude oil. Hungary is seeking a compromise with EU over Russian oil embargo.

It is very strange that the news about Hungary changing its position do not make headlines in the western media outlets. Apparently, there has been a significant softening of Hungary's position as it offers to lift its veto on the proposed embargo if EU ringfences Druzhba pipeline.

About 70% to 85% of imported crude oil from Russia is shipped from its western ports on the Baltic sea and the Black sea and in smaller volumes from its Artics terminals, while the remaining is directly delivered through the Druzhba pipeline. In 2019, crude oil coming by pipeline accounted for 4% to 8% of the EU’s total crude imports.

I have to cherry pick headlines that I believe are precursors to what my charts are telling me. The price action has been muddled over the past few weeks, however I keep seeing bullish signals using my indicators on several timeframes and that makes me seek bullish interpretations of the Elliot Wave count.

Here's my best guess of what is happening. The low of wave (ii) may coincide with EU reaching a consensus on embargo which may send the price flying.

USOIL, 4hour

The Big Picture

I believe we are about to enter wave v (circle) of 5 of (1), which shall be extended given the trajectory to date. It is not difficult to underestimate oil price capacity to extend in terminal waves. Best example is oil price going -40 USD per bbl or whatever was that low.

I am confident that the bizarre event with negative prices amid 2020 COVID fallout was not a mistake or aberration. It was a perfect way to finish off ABC correction in the expanding ending diagonal (see below). What is does mean in terms of even bigger count - honestly I do not know. I will have to use someone else's analysis to go back 150 years.

USOIL, Weekly

An attempt to google a long-term price chart yield the below result that I cannot use for technical analysis as this is monthly average prices and lots of information in form of peaks and troughs is shaven off. If you have the daily data for US oil price chart let me know 😉.



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