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14.05 the US Bear Market, the Crash of Crypto and Gold


Content

  • US Markets Weekly / The Big Picture for the US Market

  • Gold Weekly / The Big Picture in Gold

  • Crypto Weekly / The Big Picture in Crypto


A moment of reflection

It has been over more than a month since my last weekly update. I kept posting charts as I saw necessary on Tradingview but stopped updating the website after I took enormous financial and psychological blow from sudden ruble strengthening which depreciated my positions denominated in USD. Despite otherwise correct view on the US and Gold markets all my trading results and significant part of capital were wiped out. As a result my confidence got depleted to a critical level and I missed significant profits by not daring to follow my own analysis. Being correct and not taking the trade hurts even more than biting a loss. Having both in sequence can be deadly.


Shit happens. Sometimes. Quite often, actually, if you trade. Considering what is happening in the neighbouring country - losing money is not the biggest problem so far.


US Markets Weekly

The chart below is from last weekly updated posted early March.


This is how it looks now. It is pleasing to see how how precise the forecast is so far.


A close up view indicates that the market most probably has hit the local bottom.


SP500, 4hour

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/SPX500/qb4giNUT-SP500-Update/


The news headlines suggest otherwise which I take for contrarian confirmation.



The Big Picture for the US Market

To remind you what we can expect in the long-run I updated the weekly chart below. Levels and timing are notional and shall not be regarded as targets. My thinking is that after rallying for the next few weeks/months the markets will have another steep sell-off to arrive roughly at where they were before COVID. The rationale comes from interpretation of a lower time-frames and is consistent with the long-term view in other assets like gold and crypto.


SP500, weekly

I will post a few speculative ideas how to play the bounce in Get Rich Quickly section.


Gold Weekly

My bearish view that I maintained over the last few months proved to be correct. Gold is moving in the downtrend. The complexity and erratic nature of waves indicates that most probably this is a leading diagonal A.


Gold, Daily

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XAUUSD/dPla0Bjb-Gold-Update/


To confirm that the price needs to bounce hard next week. If it continues slipping lower we most probably in the wave 3 of a C wave.


However, if the picture above is correct gold can sport a rally that may last until end of summer and pull the prices to 2000 level.


The Big Picture in Gold

The big picture in gold has been unchanged over months and now it moves in close correlation with stocks and crypto. I do not have a reason for that. I just noticed that during the previous year crypto and gold moved in opposite directions on lower timeframes. This has changed when panic selling kicked in.


Gold, Weekly

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XAUUSD/miaPARZp-Gold-Bigger-Picture/


My frustration comes from the fact that despite being correct on the wave count (largely speaking we are in the wave 2 down) shorting gold in the wake of geopolitical crisis was like spitting against the wind. As I said I am no longer short (having missed the fat move last week) expecting a bounce and more clarity before I reenter shorts.


Crypto Weekly

My bearish stance on crypto proved to be correct, the bigger picture did not.


BTC chart from previous Weekly Update (March 3)

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/QqH0ytqf-BTCUSD-Update/


When the price of BTC dipped below the 2021 low I recycled my previous forecast with sideways correction. And now I hold the view that BTC will eventually go to 20,000 level. But not immediately. As I anticipate a bounce in stocks I also anticipate a bounce in crypto.

BTCUSD, Daily

As for some degree of confirmation I look at the moving averages that can weave the resistance trendline to cap wave iv. In the Ethereum chart below I kept moving averages in to let you see how they formed the trendline before and how they an act as a dynamic resistance now.


ETHUSDT, Daily


The Big Picture in Crypto

Expanded flat usually happens in wave 2. That means that we indeed might have wave 3 ahead.


Ethereum, Weekly

Having looked at BTCUSD I concluded that everything prior to 2021 might have been the first wave up since its inception. If the price declines to finish wave 2 (circle) it may bounce from 200MA and start the long-term bull trend in wave 3 (circle).


BTCUSD, weekly

Regards,

Denis F.


Disclaimer:

It is not the intention of this report to give out buy or sell signals or any trading advice. This material represents my view on the markets and shall not be regarded as an invitation to open trading positions.


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