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14.05 the US Bear Market

The chart below is from last weekly updated posted early March.


This is how it looks now. It is pleasing to see how how precise the forecast is so far.


A close up view indicates that the market most probably has hit the local bottom.


SP500, 4hour

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/SPX500/qb4giNUT-SP500-Update/


The news headlines suggest otherwise which I take for contrarian confirmation.



The Big Picture for the US Market

To remind you what we can expect in the long-run I updated the weekly chart below. Levels and timing are notional and shall not be regarded as targets. My thinking is that after rallying for the next few weeks/months the markets will have another steep sell-off to arrive roughly at where they were before COVID. The rationale comes from interpretation of a lower time-frames and is consistent with the long-term view in other assets like gold and crypto.


SP500, weekly

I will post a few speculative ideas how to play the bounce in Get Rich Quickly section.



Regards,

Denis F.


Disclaimer:

It is not the intention of this report to give out buy or sell signals or any trading advice. This material represents my view on the markets and shall not be regarded as an invitation to open trading positions.

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