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14.05 the 'Unexpected' Crash of Gold


My bearish view that I maintained over the last few months proved to be correct. Gold is moving in the downtrend. The complexity and erratic nature of waves indicates that most probably this is a leading diagonal A.


Gold, Daily

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XAUUSD/dPla0Bjb-Gold-Update/


To confirm that the price needs to bounce hard next week. If it continues slipping lower we most probably in the wave 3 of a C wave.


However, if the picture above is correct gold can sport a rally that may last until end of summer and pull the prices to 2000 level.


The Big Picture in Gold

The big picture in gold has been unchanged over months and now it moves in close correlation with stocks and crypto. I do not have a reason for that. I just noticed that during the previous year crypto and gold moved in opposite directions on lower timeframes. This has changed when panic selling kicked in.


Gold, Weekly

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XAUUSD/miaPARZp-Gold-Bigger-Picture/


My frustration comes from the fact that despite being correct on the wave count (largely speaking we are in the wave 2 down) shorting gold in the wake of geopolitical crisis was like spitting against the wind. As I said I am no longer short (having missed the fat move last week) expecting a bounce and more clarity before I reenter shorts.



Regards,

Denis F.


Disclaimer:

It is not the intention of this report to give out buy or sell signals or any trading advice. This material represents my view on the markets and shall not be regarded as an invitation to open trading positions.


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