Another week, another attempt to tell the turning point in gold. This time the price invalidated our previous scenario by taking out the previous high (labelled e circled) so the count as represented in the chart below is void.
Despite our case with the contracting triangle is getting extremely squeezed (literally a hair-thin from invalidation level) I am reluctant to throw in a towel. The structures continue to look corrective and do not provide any cues for the restart of the bullish trend (despite all the Ukraine-Russia war hype etc.). Not that I completely disregard the possibility of armed conflict, I simply think its time has not come yet. The price has risen to the area (labelled in the red rectangle on the chart) that you can identify as hard-fought ground. Just look at what happened in Aug-Oct 2020. Now it can serve as a supply area to sell that recent uptrend on any positive news.